There’s a lot of publicly available evidence indicating cooperation between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. There isn’t currently any evidence Trump himself was directly involved.

The only honest answer at this point is we don’t know. Maybe he wasn’t involved. Maybe he knew, but the campaign did a good job keeping him insulated. Or maybe he was involved and evidence will emerge later.

Outside of Trump’s inner circle, and possibly Mueller’s, no one really knows which one of those is most likely. And it’s weird to see so many Americans express utmost certainty that they do.

What we do know from publicly available information is that:

• There’s enough evidence to charge Jared Kushner with multiple felonies.
• There’s probably enough evidence to charge Donald Trump Jr.
• There’s enough evidence to build an obstruction of justice case against President Trump.

I don’t know if those criminal charges would result in convictions, and think it’s unlikely the obstruction case would result in impeachment. But Mueller’s first move indicates he will likely pursue all that and more.

No one knows what will happen, including the president. Therefore, there’s a decent chance Trump tries to stifle the investigation or the cases resulting from it, rather than let them play out.