Nicholas Grossman
1 min readJul 20, 2017

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That’s not unreasonable in theory, but it doesn’t match the evidence.

As I mentioned in the article, voters who said the economy was their top concern went for Hillary. Even more telling, Trump overwhelmingly won the counties with biggest drop in unemployment (64%-32%).

The PRRI study I cited in the article, which was published in May 2017, found that white working class voters who were happy with their economic situation were more likely to support Trump than those who were not. If your explanation were correct, that result would be the opposite.

And, speaking directly to your theory, the study found that:

White working-class voters who experienced a loss of social and economic standing were not any more likely to favor Trump than those whose status remained the same or improved.

There are many studies of how people voted in 2016, and how they feel about Trump in 2017, that show similar results.

I understand why you’d hypothesize that suffering economically under Obama explains why people voted for Trump and support his presidency now. You’re far from the only one who thinks that. But it’s contradicted by the evidence.

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Nicholas Grossman

Senior Editor at Arc Digital. Poli Sci prof (IR) at U. Illinois. Author of “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.