I hope I’m right too. Though that hope remains quite cautious.

I think you’re right that Trump and Barr are all-in (or at least close enough), but there won’t be anything they can do if Biden wins by a solid margin. If the race is close, especially if it’s too close to call, then various dangers come into play.

I’m pretty optimistic about Republicans breaking ranks if it’s clear Trump lost (even if he’s saying he didn’t). But if there’s a plausible chance at retaining power, many will probably line up behind it.