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How Do You Solve a Problem?: North Korea
Diplomacy, threats, sanctions, carrots and sticks
North Korea is simultaneously one of the world’s biggest crises and not actually a crisis. It’s more a potential crisis, a flashpoint, which could easily spin out of control. Unlike an active crisis, such as Syria — which does more harm every day it continues — there’s an uneasy status quo. As bad as it is, the plausible alternatives are worse.
A war could kill hundreds of thousands, maybe millions. Collapse risks a refugee crisis, loose nukes and a humanitarian disaster as China, Russia, and South Korea try to manage their North Korean borders. And peaceful reunification with South Korea, which comes with its own set of problems, may not even be possible.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities keep advancing, creating an increasingly powerful deterrent, and increasing the threat to South Korea, Japan, and the United States. In response, those countries increase countermeasures — installing missile defense systems and potentially nuclear weapons — which create strategic threats for China.
That’s the catch-22. There’s no good alternative to the status quo, but the status quo keeps getting worse.
